ASSESSING THE POSSIBILITY OF DETECTING POLLING STATIONS WITH TURNOUT ABOVE THEIR CAPACITY BY ENTERING DATA WITH THE RELEVANT CONDITIONS INTO THE DYNAMIC TABLE:
In three hours, a polling station can physically handle the voting of only a limited number of voters.
That number depends on how long it takes to check voters’ fingerprints, for voters to sign the voter list and to be given their ballots, how long a voter spends in the voting booth, and how long it takes to drop the envelope with the ballot into the ballot box. In other words, a polling station’s capacity depends on the number of fingerprint devices, places set aside for signing the voter lists, and voting booths.
Therefore, with a continuous flow of voters, there is an average minimum time needed for one voter to enter the polling station, vote and leave. This can serve as the average minimum rate for assessing a polling station’s capacity, which we will call, for convenience, the polling station’s average minimum voting speed, expressed in seconds.
If, for any period, dividing the length of the period for which turnout is published by the number of voters gives less than this minimum, the polling station has recorded a turnout larger than it can physically handle, which can happen only through fraud.
By dividing the length of the period under review, in seconds, by the number of people who voted during that period, we get the voting rate, that is, the voting speed in seconds, at the given polling station. For that period, the voting speed (in seconds) cannot be lower than the minimum possible time it takes one voter to vote, if there has been no electoral fraud.
Based on the number of voters at each polling station and on the standards set by electoral law for equipping polling stations and conducting the vote, it is possible to calculate a polling station’s physical capacity and the average minimum time needed per voter.
For example, if the rules provide one voter list for polling stations with up to 1,000 voters and 2 lists for polling stations with more than 1,000 voters, and also 1 voting booth for polling stations with up to 750 voters, 2 booths for polling stations with up to 1,500 voters and 3 booths for polling stations with more than 1,500 voters, then the average minimum possible speeds can be checked in practice. For example, if the possible time for one voter to vote at a polling station (the minimum possible speed) is 60 seconds, then in 3 hours the physically possible capacity would be no more than 180 voters at polling stations with up to 1,000 voters, and no more than 360 voters at polling stations with more than 1,000 voters. The calculations in this example take into account the time a voter spends on just one step, in this case only the time for registering in the list and being given the ballots, assuming that voters carry out the other steps in parallel and that the time spent on them is not added to the seconds of that speed.
In the table, the average minimum speeds were calculated by dividing 3 hours, in seconds, by the number of voters who voted at the polling station during that time.
Example 1. If you enter, for example, 1000 in the upper MAX box for the number of voters, and 60 in the upper MAX box for the average minimum speed in any 3-hour period, the table will show the polling stations with up to a thousand voters that recorded a turnout of more than 180, as well as the polling stations that recorded negative turnout, that is, those for which published data show that the number of voters decreased over the next three hours instead of increasing.
Example 2. If you enter, for example, 1000 in the upper MIN box for the number of voters, and 30 in the upper MAX box for the average minimum speed in any 3-hour period, the table will show the polling stations with more than a thousand voters that recorded a turnout of more than 360.
By entering numbers in the relevant boxes at the top of the table, you can select the polling stations that meet the given conditions. Therefore, by entering the calculated or measured figures that follow from the above, it is also possible to single out polling stations with possible fraud.
The table, with its dynamic filtering, was built from the official data published on turnout for every 3-hour period.